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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans rising together. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still